A return to the tragedy of the commons? Brexit trade-offs and spatial analysis, an Irish perspective

Historically borders have had little effect on national U.K. and Irish fishing practices in the waters between the U.K. and Ireland. Under the EU Common Fisheries Policy, the principle of relative stability has been contentious in both the U.K. and Ireland and this has been a prominent issue in campaigns for U.K. withdrawal from the EU. Using spatially explicit catch data for the period 2006–2016, trans-boundary trade-offs for the two most lucrative in the Republic of Ireland Irish (Atlantic mackerel and Dublin Bay Prawn) were analysed. On average, in terms of volume and value for mackerel U.K. catches in Irish waters exceeded Irish catches in U.K. waters while for prawns Irish catches in U.K waters exceeded U.K catches in Irish waters. For the two species combined, the annual average landings values (before costs) caught by Ireland in U.K. waters exceeded those of U.K. in Irish waters by almost €6 m. While current transboundary cooperation at the national scale appears to benefit both the U.K. and Ireland its future is likely to depend on whether Irish national negotiations are made as part of an EU negotiating bloc following an orderly Brexit or as a two state negotiation in the event of a “no-deal” Brexit.