Asynchronous market efficiency in gold and silver markets: a local currency lens

This study examines the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) in locally denominated precious metals markets across six countries, where prior research has focused on U.S. dollardenominated prices. Using linear and nonlinear methods: the Automatic Portmanteau, Wild Bootstrap Automatic Variance Ratio, and Generalised Spectral tests, we analyse the evolving efficiency of these markets over time. Our findings reveal that market inefficiencies fluctuate, driven by factors such as regulatory controls, cultural dynamics, and market structure. These inefficiencies create predictable trading opportunities, particularly in the gold-Swiss sector,
and underscore the importance of localised portfolio risk management strategies.