Climate change impacts on wind energy resources in North America based on the CMIP6 projections

The mid- and long-term evolution of wind energy resources in North America is investigated by means of a multi-model ensemble selected from 18 global climate models. The most recent scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions and land use, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), are considered – more specifically, the SSP5-8.5 (intensive emissions) and SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions). In both scenarios, onshore wind power density in the US and Canada is predicted to drop. Under SSP5-8.5, the reduction is of the order of 15% overall, reaching as much as 40% in certain northern regions – Quebec and Nunavut in Canada and Alaska in the US. Conversely, significant increases in wind power density are predicted in Hudson Bay (up to 25%), Texas and northern Mexico (up to 15%), southern Mexico and Central America (up to 30%). As for the intra-annual variability, it is poised to rise drastically, with monthly average wind power densities increasing up to 120% in certain months and decreasing up to 60% in others. These changes in both the mean value and the intra-annual variability of wind power density are of consequence for the Levelised Cost of Energy from wind, the planning of future investments and, more generally, the contribution of wind to the energy mix.