Drivers of coal consumption changes: A decomposition analysis for Chinese regions

During the last decades, a large set of policies have been used to reduce the coal dependency of China and diversify the source of energy used. Despite the decrease in the coal intensity of production, extensive differences still exist across regions, where development trends are influencing coal efficiencies and use. By impacting the sustainability performances of the country, regional disparities need to be investigated. With this objective, a perfect decomposition technique is used, for the first time, to analyse the drivers of coal consumption changes across four macro-Chinese regions for the years 2000–2016. Characterized by three major development programmes and five-year plans with specific energy targets, this period is particularly relevant to investigate the relationships existing between socio-economics factors and coal consumption changes. Results show that economic prosperity has been the main driver of coal consumption increase and, for the most developed areas, coal intensity contributed to slow down the coal consumption rise. Regional differences on internal migration rate largely influenced the population effect. By investigating the factors of coal consumption changes, and relating results to targets and policies, this paper supports the definition of strategies aiming to account for the opportunities and constraints of the different Chinese regions.