Effects of large uncertainties in a reliability based framework for humanitarian emergency shelters

There exists inadequate guideline for assessing or comparing structural performances of shelters for humanitarian emergency, although these structures are of significantly varied design and often exposed to extreme weather events. Large epistemic and aleatory uncertainties are associated with these types of structures and an appropriate analysis and assessment framework is required to quantify and minimize the risks arising from varied uncertainty and exposure conditions. This paper proposes a reliability analysis based framework to assess such solutions. Reliability index is recommended as a key performance indicator for confident deployment and comparison of a wide variety of structures for humanitarian emergencies. In this regard, a number of designs of reciprocal roof frame shelters are considered exposed to wind and gravity load effects. The evolution of reliability index due to a change in load intensity and uncertainty related to the system illustrates how it may be practically used for a comprehensive number of situations. A study on parameter importance measures and sensitivity analysis emphasizes how the dominance of a parameter changes in terms of rank and weight with changing uncertainty and exposure conditions. The adoption of a reliability based framework allows the disaster management solutions to be assessed in a site-specific and application-specific fashion, providing a flexibility which the traditional techniques or deterministic assessments cannot offer.