Exploring the role of electrification and modal shift in decarbonizing the road passenger transport in British Columbia

The possibility of the modal shift to public transport and active mobility while considering transport electrification and fuel efficiency improvement has yet to be adequately investigated. This paper explores transition pathways toward an environmentally sustainable road passenger transportation system in the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada. MESSAGE, as a bottom-up energy systems optimization model, is used to find the cost-optimal fuel and technology mix in the transport and power sector. Multiple scenarios mainly assess the influence of modal shift and electric vehicle (EV) diffusion on greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Besides, the effects of scenarios on the power sector configuration are examined. The results show that BC would not achieve the 80% emissions reduction target in the Climate Change Accountability Act unless by a radical expansion of transport electrification. The target could be met by a minimum diffusion of 70% EVs in the total car stock as well as 35% public transport contribution in total passenger kilometers. The findings also indicate that fully electrified light-duty vehicles coupled with active transport would lead to almost a zero-emission level. Nevertheless, 100% electrification would impose an extra 5.6 TWh burden on the power supply system relative to the business-as-usual scenario.