Household car ownership in Ireland across time: An analysis of the effects of expansion and contraction in the Irish economy

This paper has two objectives, firstly to examine the current factors affecting household car ownership and secondly to examine how the influence of these factors have evolved over time. The time period under review covers episodes of significant expansion and contraction in the Irish economy and thus this study is valuable for understanding the underlying behavioural changes that have occurred. Two multinomial logit models are estimated, one a static version which uses data from the most recent Irish Household Budget Survey (HBS) and the second a pooled version which pools data from a number of rounds of the HBS. Car ownership is found to be affected by rising household expenditure growth and employment to a greater extent than falling household expenditure growth and employment. Thus, as household expenditures and employment recover, the demand for car ownership is likely to rise again. A generation effect may also increase future car ownership as younger cohorts replace older cohorts. There is also a trend toward increasing levels of car ownership for urban households which has implications for the public and private transport needs of households in these areas. The results also suggest that family composition is a strong and stable predictor of the level of car ownership across time.