Investigating the energy transition to a coal free residential sector in Kazakhstan using a regionally disaggregated energy systems model

Problems with unsustainable use of energy by households and lack of access to energy infrastructure require effective actions from the policy makers. Energy system models can usefully analyze future residential sector energy pathways “within” the full energy system. However, few energy system models have been developed with disaggregated sub-national regional detail, building type and urban/rural divisions. This paper addresses this key gap. Disaggregating the residential sector by building categories allows improved representation of the range of energy transition options across building categories. We incorporated a novel detailed building stock module into a 16-region TIMES energy systems model for Kazakhstan, using statistical data on the housing stock and building energy audit reports. We then explore the introduction of a coal ban and use scenario analysis to identify the most cost-effective heating technologies for the different regions and different building types. Implications of the residential sector policies to the supply side energy infrastructure were also quantified. The energy transition (from solid fuels to cleaner alternatives) is rarely achievable without Government intervention, therefore scenarios with ban on coal use and clean energy technology subsidies (micro-CHP, heat pumps and solar space heaters) have been investigated in this study. The results indicate that in rural areas networked gas (for detached households) and district heating (for flats) are more economically viable substitutes to coal, even with subsidies offered for clean technologies. In the scenario with the constraint on gas network expansion and clean technology subsidies, there is a wide utilization of heat pumps in detached rural houses. Subsidies for retrofit measures are effective with wide utilization, especially in the areas affected by the coal ban, with up to 76% reduction of the useful energy demand. The total amount of allocated subsidies for clean technologies amounted for up to 32% and 8% of the current state social and health care expenditures. A coal ban in the residential sector is estimated to achieve emissions reductions for PM_2.5 and CO of 92% and 95%, respectively (compared to the base year level), even accounting for emissions from the supply side (power plants, heat plants).