Ireland's carbon emission trends and degrowth opportunities: Based on modified Tapio - LMDI model

This study examines the complex interplay between economic growth and carbon emissions in Ireland from 1995 to 2023 at the national level, using the modified Tapio decoupling model and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method from a degrowth perspective. It provides both a theoretical foundation and possible strategies for balancing Ireland's climate commitments with economic stability. The findings reveal distinct phase characteristics in Ireland's decoupling state, with the core tension arising from the dynamic interplay between technological effect (energy structure optimization, energy efficiency improvements, and material efficiency gains) and scale effects (per capita GNI∗ growth and population expansion). Furthermore, this study proposes the possible opportunity for degrowth at the national level, offering theoretical insights for small open economies seeking to reconcile carbon neutrality with economic growth.