LEAPs and Bounds-an Energy Demand and Constraint Optimised Model of the Irish Energy System

This paper builds a model of energy demand and supply for Ireland with a focus on evaluating, and providing insights for, energy efficiency policies. The demand-side comprises sectoral sub-models, with a detailed bottom-up approach used for the transport and residential sectors and a top-down approach used for the industry and services sectors. The supply side uses the linear programming optimisation features of the Open Source Energy Modelling System applied to electricity generation to calculate the least-cost solution. This paper presents the first national level model developed within the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning software to combine detailed end-use analysis on the demand side with a cost-minimising optimisation approach for modelling the electricity generation sector. Through three scenarios over the period 2009-2020, the model examines the aggregate impact on energy demand of a selection of current and proposed energy efficiency policies. In 2020, energy demand in the energy efficiency scenario is 8.6 % lower than the reference scenario and 11.1 % lower in the energy efficiency + scenario.