Offshore wind resource in the context of global climate change over a tropical area

Understanding the future offshore wind energy is crucial for making an appropriate energy strategy. Yet how offshore wind energy will respond to the rapidly intensifying global warming remains inconclusive. Focusing on a tropical sea in Vietnam, this study assesses the climatic impact of global warming on the local offshore wind potential. Dynamically downscaled wind data obtained by an edge-cutting fine-resolution regional climate model with two greenhouse-gases Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 8.5 and 4.5 were biased-corrected with a quantile mapping method before using for assessment. Results revealed a changing trend of the annual-mean offshore wind speed and power potential in Vietnam under both scenarios. However, the change is seasonally asymmetric with decreases of about 2 – 10% in September-October-November and slight increases of about 2 – 4% in December-January-February. The turbine-based assessment showed that the cumulative annual energy obtained from the 12 MW and 8 MW turbines could reach the highest about 50.9 GWh and 30.7 GWh (2080–2099 average under scenario RCP8.5) but the difference in their capacity factor is much smaller, suggesting that turbine 8 MW should be considered in the sense of cost-effectiveness in some areas.