Offshore wind resources in the Caspian Sea under climate change

Wind energy is significantly influenced by climate change, impacting its variability and utilization. This study examines the evolution of offshore wind resources in the Caspian Sea up to 2090, using the latest climate change scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs included in this work are: SSP5-8.5, considering high emissions from an economic growth based on fossil-fuel consumption; and SSP2-4.5, reflecting a moderate-emission pathway where current policies remain relatively invariable. To enhance the accuracy and robustness of results, a multi-model ensemble is constructed with the Global Climate Models that perform best in the Caspian Sea region. Projections up to 2090 indicate a significant decrease in average wind power density (WPD) compared to the baseline period (1961–2023) – drops in WPD in 16.6 % of the study area are projected from the 2030s to the 2090s. Seasonal variations show a generalized decrease in WPD during autumn and an increase in summer (23 % and 17.5 % in area, respectively). Substantial changes in WPD, ranging from −70 % to +80 %, are projected depending on the region and period. Using Emerging Hot Spot Analysis, the study highlights spatial and temporal shifts in WPD, identifying an enlargement of cold spots, particularly Persistent Cold Spots, in the South Caspian Sea; and an expansion of hot spots, particularly Persistent Hot Spots, in the Middle and North Caspian. This research uncovers the detrimental effects of climate change on the wind resources in the region and highlights the relevance of these results for developing effective energy management strategies.