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Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

  • Jörn Behrens
  • , Finn Løvholt
  • , Fatemeh Jalayer
  • , Stefano Lorito
  • , Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez
  • , Mathilde Sørensen
  • , Stephane Abadie
  • , Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe
  • , Iñigo Aniel-Quiroga
  • , Andrey Babeyko
  • , Marco Baiguera
  • , Roberto Basili
  • , Stefano Belliazzi
  • , Anita Grezio
  • , Kendra Johnson
  • , Shane Murphy
  • , Raphaël Paris
  • , Irina Rafliana
  • , Raffaele De Risi
  • , Tiziana Rossetto
  • Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Marta Del Zoppo, Alberto Armigliato, Vladimír Bureš, Pavel Cech, Claudia Cecioni, Paul Christodoulides, Gareth Davies, Frédéric Dias, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Mauricio González, Maria Gritsevich, Serge Guillas, Carl Bonnevie Harbitz, Utku Kânoǧlu, Jorge Macías, Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos, Jascha Polet, Fabrizio Romano, Amos Salamon, Antonio Scala, Mislav Stepinac, David R. Tappin, Hong Kie Thio, Roberto Tonini, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Thomas Ulrich, Elisa Varini, Manuela Volpe, Eduardo Vyhmeister
  • University of Hamburg
  • Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
  • University of Naples Federico II
  • Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia
  • ERN Internacional
  • Centre Internacional de Metodes Numerics en Enginyeria (CIMNE)
  • University of Bergen
  • Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour
  • Universidad de Cantabria
  • Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - German Research Centre for Geosciences
  • University College London
  • GEM Foundation
  • Institut français de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer
  • Laboratoire Magmas and Volcans
  • German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE)
  • Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI)
  • University of Bristol
  • University of Bologna
  • University of Hradec Kralove
  • Roma Tre University
  • Cyprus University of Technology
  • Geoscience Australia
  • University College Dublin
  • Finnish Geospatial Research Institute (FGI)
  • University of Helsinki
  • Ural Federal University
  • Middle East Technical University
  • University of Málaga
  • International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
  • California State Polytechnic University Pomona
  • Geological Survey of Israel
  • University of Zagreb
  • British Geological Survey
  • AECOM
  • National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
  • Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich
  • National Research Council of Italy

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

Abstract

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

Original languageEnglish
Article number628772
JournalFrontiers in Earth Science
Volume9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 29 Apr 2021

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

  1. SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities
    SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities

Keywords

  • hazard
  • probabilistic method
  • research gap
  • risk
  • tsunami

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