Spatiotemporal evolution of climate-related variables affecting wind energy patterns in Ireland over the recent 40-year period (1985−2024)

The main aim of the proposed study is to present a comprehensive climatological assessment of wind climate and wind power potential in Ireland and its surrounding seas, including the Irish, Celtic Seas, and North Atlantic Ocean, for the past four decades (1985 −2024) using ERA5 reanalysis datasets. The long-term analyses integrate sea surface temperature (SST) and mean sea level (MSL) pressure to better understand their influence on wind patterns. The 40-year trends reveal a significant warming in SST, with 99.9% confidence. These warming trends are associated with remarkable downward trends in wind speed (V) and wind power density (WPD), with increasing levels towards the eastern coastal area (Irish Sea). In contrast, the North Atlantic Ocean displays milder or even subtle changes in V and WPD. Wind speed in marine areas is almost 1.5 times that in land areas, resulting in marine areas representing a powerful source of renewable energy for Ireland. The western Irish marine area (North Atlantic Ocean) is characterised by strong and persistent winds, resulting in the highest WPD, while the eastern coast (Irish Sea) has relatively weak V, resulting in the lowest WPD. The southern and southwestern coastal regions (Celtic Sea) show high and stable V and WPD. The regions (i.e., the western and southwestern coastal regions) are one of the most ideal locations for the development of offshore wind projects in Ireland.