Speed and justice in a renewable energy transition

A just transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy has been associated with a variety of duties, including climate change mitigation and promoting procedural, distributive, and recognitional justice. Several authors have discussed transitional justice tensions between the need for rapid greenhouse gas emissions reductions and other aspects of a just transition, such as fair inclusion of stakeholders. We make the case that such trade-offs are often uncertain, and that this has important moral implications tied to inductive risks. Inductive risks arise when decision-making requires accepting or rejecting an uncertain statement, where the moral harms of errors may be asymmetrical. This line of reasoning suggests that very strong evidence should be required to accept that imposing injustices on marginalized populations is necessary for rapid emissions reductions.