The effect of potential reform of the CAP on greenhouse gas emissions from Irish agriculture: An extensification scenario

Unlike most developed countries, agriculture is the greatest single source of greenhouse gases in Ireland and accounts for approximately one-third of the national emissions. In this paper, the future emissions of greenhouse gases from Irish agriculture are projected using an economic model of the Irish agricultural sector. Coefficients from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are used to convert the raw agricultural data from the economic model to emission levels. These projections are generated under two different scenarios: the first is a baseline result, which holds the present agricultural policy environment - the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) - constant for the projection period. The second result is the projection of emissions under a particular policy reform scenario. The effect of this scenario on emissions is measured relative to the baseline result.