Abstract
Background: Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050. Methods: Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors. Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 aim to reduce non-communicable disease mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030 was estimated for cancer. Findings: In 2023, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 16·4 to 20·7) incident cases of cancer and 10·4 million (9·65 to 10·9) deaths, contributing to 271 million (255 to 285) DALYs globally. Of these, 57·9% (56·1 to 59·8) of incident cases and 65·8% (64·3 to 67·6) of cancer deaths occurred in low-income to upper-middle-income countries based on World Bank income group classifications. Cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally in 2023 after cardiovascular diseases. There were 4·33 million (3·85 to 4·78) risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% (37·8 to 45·4) of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% (57·1 to 86·8) from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% (62·2 to 86·2) over the same period. The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally, 60·7% (41·9 to 80·6) and 74·5% (50·1 to 104·2) increases from 2024, respectively. These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90·6% [61·0 to 127·0]) compared with high-income countries (42·8% [28·3 to 58·6]). Most of these increases are likely due to demographic changes, as age-standardised death rates are forecast to change by –5·6% (–12·8 to 4·6) between 2024 and 2050 globally. Between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying due to cancer between the ages of 30 years and 70 years was forecasted to have a relative decrease of 6·5% (3·2 to 10·3). Interpretation: Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden, with increasing numbers of cases and deaths forecasted up to 2050 and a disproportionate growth in burden in countries with scarce resources. The decline in age-standardised mortality rates from cancer is encouraging but insufficient to meet the SDG target set for 2030. Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Funding: Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, and St Baldrick's Foundation.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1565-1586 |
| Number of pages | 22 |
| Journal | The Lancet |
| Volume | 406 |
| Issue number | 10512 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 11 Oct 2025 |
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In: The Lancet, Vol. 406, No. 10512, 11.10.2025, p. 1565-1586.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - The global, regional, and national burden of cancer, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050
T2 - a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
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AU - Jalilzadeh Yengejeh, Reza
AU - Jalloh, Mohamed L.
AU - Jamal, Qazi Mohammad Sajid
AU - Jamil, Safayet
AU - Javaid, Syed Sarmad
AU - Jawaid, Talha
AU - Jayarajah, Umesh
AU - Jayaram, Shubha
AU - Jayasinghe, Ruwan Duminda
AU - Jee, Sun Ha
AU - Jena, Diptismita
AU - Jin, Shuai
AU - Jin, Wenyi
AU - Jokar, Mohammad
AU - Jonas, Jost B.
AU - Joo, Tamas
AU - Jose, Jobin
AU - Joseph, Abel
AU - Joseph, Nitin
AU - Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma
AU - Joukar, Farahnaz
AU - Jürisson, Mikk
AU - Juweid, Malik E.
AU - Jyoti, Anupam
AU - Kaambwa, Billingsley
AU - Kabir, Ali
AU - Kabir, Zubair
AU - Kabiri, Maryam
AU - Kadir, Dler Hussein
AU - Kalan, Ebbie
AU - Kalankesh, Leila R.
AU - Kamal, Mehnaz
AU - Kamal, Vineet Kumar
AU - Kamarajah, Sivesh Kathir
AU - Kamireddy, Arun
AU - Kamorudeen, Ramat T.
AU - Kanaani Nejad, Fatemeh
AU - Kankam, Samuel Berchi
AU - Kanmodi, Kehinde Kazeem
AU - Kapoor, Neeti
AU - Karajizadeh, Mehrdad
AU - Karami, Jafar
AU - Karasneh, Reema A.
AU - Karch, André
AU - Karimi, Aliasghar
AU - Karimi, Mohammad Amin
AU - Karimzadhagh, Sahand
AU - Karpiński, Tomasz M.
AU - Kashoo, Faizan Zaffar
AU - Kauppila, Joonas H.
AU - Kaur, Navjot
AU - Kausar, Mohd Adnan
AU - Kazemi, Foad
AU - Kebede, Fekadu Abera
AU - Keshwani, Ariz
AU - Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle
AU - Khader, Yousef Saleh
AU - Khajuria, Himanshu
AU - Khalid, Asaad
AU - Khalifa, Hazim O.
AU - Khalili, Anita
AU - Khalili, Pantea
AU - Khalilian, Alireza
AU - Khalili-Tanha, Ghazaleh
AU - khalis, Mohamed
AU - Khamesipour, Faham
AU - Khan, Ajmal
AU - Khan, Faiz Ullah
AU - Khan, Gulfaraz
AU - Khan, Mohammad Jobair
AU - Khan, Moien AB
AU - Khan, Salman Ali
AU - Khanmohammadi, Shaghayegh
AU - Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad
AU - Khatib, Mahalaqua Nazli
AU - Khayamzadeh, Maryam
AU - Khayat Kashani, Hamid Reza
AU - Kheradmand, Daniel
AU - Khidri, Feriha Fatima
AU - Khosla, Atulya Aman
AU - Khosravi, Mohammad Ali
AU - Khubchandani, Jagdish
AU - Kim, Kwanghyun
AU - Kim, Yun Jin
AU - Kim, Yun Seo
AU - Kimokoti, Ruth W.
AU - Kisa, Adnan
AU - Kisa, Sezer
AU - KM, Shivakumar
AU - Kokkorakis, Michail
AU - Kolahi, Ali Asghar
AU - Kompani, Farzad
AU - Kong, Jianqiu
AU - Konstas, Anastasios Georgios
AU - Kostev, Karel
AU - Kotnis, Ashwin Laxmikant
AU - Koulmane Laxminarayana, Sindhura Lakshmi
AU - Kretchy, Irene Akwo
AU - Krishan, Kewal
AU - Kuchay, Raja Amir Hassan
AU - Kuddus, Mohammed
AU - Kulimbet, Mukhtar
AU - Kumar, Dewesh
AU - Kumar, G. Anil
AU - Kumar, Nithin
AU - Kumar, Vijay
AU - Kundu, Satyajit
AU - Kunutsor, Setor K.
AU - Kushawaha, Pramod Kumar
AU - Kustanti, Christina Yeni Yeni
AU - Kutluk, Tezer
AU - Kuttikkattu, Ambily
AU - Kuttybayev, Assylkhan
AU - Kyei, Grace Kwakyewaa
AU - Kyei-Arthur, Frank
AU - Kytö, Ville
AU - La Vecchia, Carlo
AU - Ladan, Muhammad Awwal
AU - Lahariya, Chandrakant
AU - Lai, Daphne Teck Ching
AU - Lai, Hanpeng
AU - Lakanova, Balzhan
AU - Lal, Dharmesh Kumar
AU - Lám, Judit
AU - Lanfranchi, Francesco
AU - Lasrado, Savita
AU - Latif, Mahrukh
AU - Lauriola, Paolo
AU - Lawal, Basira Kankia
AU - Le, Huu Hoai
AU - Le, Minh Huu Nhat
AU - Le, Nhi Huu Hanh
AU - Le, Thao Thi Thu
AU - Ledda, Caterina
AU - Lee, Ivan
AU - Lee, Sang woong
AU - Lee, Seung Won
AU - Lee, Shaun Wen Huey
AU - Lee, Wei Chen
AU - Legesse, Awol Yemane
AU - Leigh, James
AU - Leong, Elvynna
AU - Li, Ming Chieh
AU - Li, Wang Zhong
AU - Li, Wei
AU - Li, Xiaopan
AU - Li, Yongze
AU - Li, Zhengrui
AU - Li, Zhihui
AU - Lim, Stephen S.
AU - Lin, Queran
AU - Liu, Chaojie
AU - Liu, Gang
AU - Liu, Jue
AU - Liu, Liu
AU - Liu, Xiaofeng
AU - Liu, Xuefeng
AU - Llanaj, Erand
AU - Lubinda, Jailos
AU - Lutambi, Angelina M.
AU - Lytras, Miltiadis D.
AU - Lytvyak, Ellina
AU - M Amin, Hawraz Ibrahim
AU - Ma, Zheng Feei
AU - Maalman, Raymond Saa Eru
AU - Madadizadeh, Farzan
AU - Madani, Seyedeh Panid
AU - Mafi, Alireza
AU - Maghazachi, Azzam A.
AU - Mahamed, Abdulahi Abdiwali
AU - Mahmood, Nozad Hussein
AU - Mahmoud, Mansour Adam
AU - Mahumud, Rashidul Alam
AU - Majeed, Azeem
AU - Makram, Abdelrahman M.
AU - Makram, Omar M.
AU - Makris, Konstantinos Christos C.
AU - Malasala, Satyaveni
AU - Maleki-Kakelar, Hadi
AU - Malhotra, Kashish
AU - Malik, Ahmad Azam
AU - Malik, Iram
AU - Malinga, Lesibana Anthony
AU - Malta, Deborah Carvalho
AU - Mansouri, Vahid
AU - Mansourian, Marjan
AU - Mansournia, Mohammad Ali
AU - Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni
AU - Mao, Changkun
AU - Marateb, Hamid Reza
AU - Marghani, Basma Hamed
AU - Marino, Mirko
AU - Martini, Santi
AU - Martorell, Miquel
AU - Marzo, Roy Rillera
AU - Marzouk, Sammer
AU - Mathangasinghe, Yasith
AU - Mathur, Medha
AU - Matozinhos, Fernanda Penido
AU - Matthew, Indu Liz
AU - McKee, Martin
AU - McPhail, Steven M.
AU - Mechili, Enkeleint A.
AU - Meena, Jitendra Kumar
AU - Meftah, Elahe
AU - Mehboob, Riffat
AU - Mehmood, Asim
AU - Mekene Meto, Tesfahun
AU - Meles, Hadush Negash
AU - Melese, Addisu
AU - Mendez-Lopez, Max Alberto
AU - Mendoza, Walter
AU - Menezes, Ritesh G.
AU - Menges, Dominik
AU - Mengesha, Endalkachew Worku
AU - Menon, Tara P.
AU - Mentis, Alexios Fotios A.
AU - Meo, Sultan Ayoub Ayoub
AU - Meretoja, Atte
AU - Meretoja, Tuomo J.
AU - Mestrovic, Tomislav
AU - Metwally, Mohamed M.M.
AU - Miazgowski, Tomasz
AU - Michalek, Irmina Maria
AU - Miller, Ted R.
AU - Minervini, Giuseppe
AU - Mirghafourvand, Mojgan
AU - Misganaw, Awoke
AU - Misra, Sanjeev
AU - Mithra, Prasanna
AU - Mogessie, Yidnek
AU - Mohamadkhani, Ashraf
AU - Mohamed, Jama
AU - Mohamed, Mona Gamal
AU - Mohamed, Nouh Saad
AU - Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin
AU - Mohammad, Taj
AU - Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi, Sakineh
AU - Mohammadi, Abdolreza
AU - Mohammadi, Mohammad Kazem
AU - Mohammadi, Seyed Omid
AU - Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah
AU - Mohammadzadeh, Ibrahim
AU - Mohammadzadeh, Zeinab
AU - Mohammed, Al Kassim Hassan
AU - Mohammed, Mustapha
AU - Mohammed, Shafiu
AU - Mohsenzadeh, Amin
AU - Mokdad, Ali H.
AU - Molavi Vardanjani, Hossein
AU - Molinaro, Sabrina
AU - Momani, Shaher
AU - Monasta, Lorenzo
AU - Moni, Mohammad Ali
AU - Moradi, Yousef
AU - Moraga, Paula
AU - Morrison, Shane Douglas
AU - Morsy, Mahmoud M.
AU - Mossialos, Elias
AU - Motaharinezhad, Fatemeh
AU - Motappa, Rohith
AU - Mozahheb Yousefi, Kimia
AU - Msherghi, Ahmed
AU - Mubarak, Rabia
AU - Mubarik, Sumaira
AU - Mukoro, George Duke
AU - Mulita, Admir
AU - Munjal, Kavita
AU - Murillo-Zamora, Efren
AU - Mushtaq, Ali
AU - Mushtaq, Saima
AU - Mustafa, Sherzad Ibrahim
AU - Muthupandian, Saravanan
AU - Myung, Woojae
AU - Nabavi, Amin
AU - Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman
AU - Nagel, Gabriele
AU - Naghavi, Pirouz
AU - Naik, Gurudatta
AU - Naimzada, Mukhammad David
AU - Nainu, Firzan
AU - Nair, Tapas Sadasivan
AU - Najmuldeen, Hastyar Hama Rashid
AU - Nam, Hae Sung
AU - Nargus, Shumaila
AU - Nartey, Yvonne
AU - Nashwan, Abdulqadir J.
AU - Nassar, Mahmoud
AU - Natto, Zuhair S.
AU - Nauman, Javaid
AU - Nawsherwan,
AU - Nayak, Biswa Prakash
AU - Nayon, Md Fahad Shahariar
AU - Nazri-Panjaki, Athare
AU - Ndishimye, Pacifique
AU - Nega, Amanuel Tebabal
AU - Negahdary, Masoud
AU - Negoi, Ionut
AU - Nejjari, Chakib
AU - Nekouei, Omid
AU - Nepal, Gaurav
AU - Netsere, Henok Biresaw
AU - Ngabonziza, Jean Claude Semuto Semuto
AU - Nguyen, Cuong Tat
AU - Nguyen, Dang
AU - Nguyen, Kieu Viet Nhi
AU - Nguyen, Nhan
AU - Nguyen, The Phuong
AU - Nguyen, Tuan Thanh
AU - Nguyen, Van Thanh
AU - Niazi, Robina Khan
AU - Nieddu, Luciano
AU - Nikravangolsefid, Nasrin
AU - Niranjan, Vikram
AU - Niyonsenga, Jean Marie Vianney
AU - Nnaji, Chukwudi A.
AU - Nnyanzi, Lawrence Achilles
AU - Nomura, Shuhei
AU - Noor, Nurulamin M.
AU - Noor, Syed Toukir Ahmed
AU - Noorafrooz, Mohammadamin
AU - Noroozi, Masoud
AU - Nri-Ezedi, Chisom Adaobi
AU - Nugen, Fred
AU - Nurrika, Dieta
AU - Nzoputam, Chimezie Igwegbe
AU - Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet
AU - Oancea, Bogdan
AU - Obakachi, Vincent Adeiza
AU - Odetokun, Ismail A.
AU - Oduro, Michael Safo
AU - Oguta, James Odhiambo
AU - Oh, In Hwan
AU - Okati-Aliabad, Hassan
AU - Okeke, Sylvester Reuben
AU - Okekunle, Akinkunmi Paul
AU - Okonji, Osaretin Christabel
AU - Olagunju, Andrew T.
AU - Olanrewaju, Timothy Olusegun Olusegun
AU - Olatubi, Matthew Idowu
AU - Omage, Folorunsho Bright
AU - Omar, Hany A.
AU - Omer, Goran Latif
AU - Omonisi, Abidemi E.
AU - Ong, Sok King
AU - Onwujekwe, Obinna E.
AU - Opitz, Marcel
AU - Ordak, Michal
AU - Orish, Verner N.
AU - Orscelik, Atakan
AU - Ortiz-Prado, Esteban
AU - Osborne, Augustus
AU - Osman, Alaa AM
AU - Ostroff, Samuel M.
AU - Osuagwu, Uchechukwu Levi
AU - Othman, Elham H.
AU - Otorkpa, Oche Joseph
AU - Otstavnov, Stanislav S.
AU - Ouyahia, Amel
AU - Owolabi, Mayowa O.
AU - Oyebanji, Oladayo Ayobami
AU - Oyebola, Kolapo
AU - Ozsahin, Ilker
AU - P A, Mahesh
AU - Padron-Monedero, Alicia
AU - Padubidri, Jagadish Rao
AU - Palicz, Tamás
AU - Panda, Sujogya Kumar
AU - Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra
AU - Pande Katare, Deepshikha
AU - Pandi-Perumal, Seithikurippu R.
AU - Pang, Ke
AU - Panos, Georgios D.
AU - Panos, Leonidas D.
AU - Pantazopoulos, Ioannis
AU - Papa, Mario Virgilio
AU - Paranjkhoo, Parinaz
AU - Parhizkar Roudsari, Peyvand
AU - Parikh, Romil R.
AU - Park, Eun Cheol
AU - Pasovic, Maja
AU - Passera, Roberto
AU - Patel, Jay
AU - Patel, Riya Jayesh
AU - Patil, Shankargouda
AU - Patra, Apurba
AU - Pazoki Toroudi, Hamidreza
AU - Pekarcikova, Jarmila
AU - Pensato, Umberto
AU - Peprah, Prince
AU - Pereira, Jeevan
AU - Peres, Mario F.P.
AU - Perna, Simone
AU - Pestell, Richard G.
AU - Peter, Olumuyiwa James
AU - Petermann-Rocha, Fanny Emily
AU - Pham, Hoang Tran
AU - Pham, Tung Thanh
AU - Pierannunzio, Daniela
AU - Pillay, Julian David
AU - Piracha, Zahra Zahid
AU - Pirouzpanah, Saeed
AU - Poluru, Ramesh
AU - Pon Avudaiappan, Arjun
AU - Postma, Maarten J.
AU - Pourbabaki, Reza
AU - Pourghazi, Farzad
AU - Prabhu, Disha
AU - Pradhan, Jalandhar
AU - Prakash, Peralam Yegneswaran
AU - Prasad, Chandra P.
AU - Prashant, Akila
AU - Prates, Elton Junio Sady
AU - Pribadi, Dimas Ria Angga
AU - Puvvula, Jagadeesh
AU - Qazi, Asma Saleem
AU - Qiu, Suli
AU - Qurbani, Karzan
AU - Raeisi Shahraki, Hadi
AU - Rafiee, Ata
AU - Rafiei, Alireza
AU - Raghuveer, Pracheth
AU - Rahim, Hawbash Mohammed Amin
AU - Rahman, Fryad Majeed
AU - Rahman, Md Mijanur
AU - Rahman, Mohammad Meshbahur
AU - Rahman, Mosiur
AU - Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
AU - Rahmani, Amir Masoud
AU - Rahmani, Saeed
AU - Rahmati, Masoud
AU - Rai, Pramila
AU - Raimondo, Diego
AU - Raimondo, Ivano
AU - Rajaa, Sathish
AU - Rajabi, Rayan
AU - Rajizadeh, Mohammad Amin
AU - Ramadan, Majed
AU - Ramasamy, Chitra
AU - Ramasamy, Shakthi Kumaran
AU - Ramesh, Pushkal Sinduvadi
AU - Ramezani, Zahra
AU - Rana, Juwel
AU - Rana, Rishabh Kumar
AU - Rancic, Nemanja
AU - Ranjbar Noei, Fatemeh
AU - Rao, Christopher
AU - Rao, Kumuda
AU - Rao, Mithun
AU - Rao, Sowmya J.
AU - Rashedi, Vahid
AU - Rashidi, Mohammad Mahdi
AU - Rathish, Devarajan
AU - Rauniyar, Santosh Kumar
AU - Rautalin, Ilari
AU - Rawaf, Salman
AU - Rawal, Lal
AU - Redwan, Elrashdy
AU - Rege, Sanika
AU - Reis-Mendes, Ana
AU - Restaino, Stefano
AU - Rezaei, Nazila
AU - Rezaei, Negar
AU - Rezaei, Nima
AU - Rezaeian, Mohsen
AU - Ribeiro da Silva, Tércia Moreira
AU - Ribeiro Guerra, Maximiliano Ribeiro
AU - Rizvi, Moattar Raza
AU - Roberts, Thomas J.
AU - Rocha, Hermano Alexandre Lima
AU - Rocha-Gomes, João Rocha
AU - Rodrigues da Silva, Thales Philipe
AU - Rohilla, Ravi
AU - Rohloff, Peter
AU - Root, Kevin T.
AU - Roshandel, Gholamreza
AU - Roshanshad, Amirhossein
AU - Rout, Himanshu Sekhar
AU - Rovera, Guido
AU - Roy, Nitai
AU - Roy, Sharmistha
AU - Saber, Korosh
AU - Saber-Ayad, Maha Mohamed
AU - Sabet, Cameron John
AU - Sabour, Siamak
AU - Saddik, Basema Ahmad
AU - Sadegh, Tarannom
AU - Saeb, Mohammad Reza
AU - Saeed, Kanza
AU - Saeed, Mohd
AU - Saeed, Umar
AU - Saghazadeh, Amene
AU - Saheb Sharif-Askari, Fatemeh
AU - Saheb Sharif-Askari, Narjes
AU - Sahebkar, Amirhossein
AU - Sahoo, Pragyan Monalisa
AU - Sahoo, Soumya Swaroop
AU - Sajid, Mirza Rizwan
AU - Saleh, Mohamed A.
AU - Salehi, Leili
AU - Salek Farrokhi, Amir
AU - Salem, Marwa Rashad
AU - Salimi, Sohrab
AU - Samadi, Pouria
AU - Samaranayake, Jayami Eshana
AU - Samodra, Yoseph Leonardo
AU - Samy, Abdallah M.
AU - Sanabria, Juan
AU - Santric-Milicevic, Milena M.
AU - Sarasmita, Made Ary
AU - Saravanan, Aswini
AU - Sargazi, Saman
AU - Sarkar, Tanmay
AU - Sarode, Gargi Sachin
AU - Sarode, Sachin C.
AU - Sarveazad, Arash
AU - Sassano, Michele
AU - Sathian, Brijesh
AU - Satpathy, Maheswar
AU - Sattarpour, Reza
AU - Saulam, Jennifer
AU - Sawhney, Monika
AU - Saxena, Juhi
AU - Schaarschmidt, Benedikt Michael
AU - Schinckus, Christophe
AU - Schneider, Ione Jayce Ceola
AU - Schuermans, Art
AU - Schumacher, Austin E.
AU - Sekar, Durairaj
AU - Sekaran, Saravanan
AU - Šekerija, Mario
AU - Semreen, Mohammad H.
AU - Sendekie, Ashenafi Kibret
AU - Sengupta, Pallav
AU - Senol, Yigit Can
AU - Senthilkumaran, Subramanian
AU - Serban, Dragos
AU - Sethi, Yashendra
AU - Seyed Alshohadaei, Seyed Mohammad
AU - Seyedmirzaei, Homa
AU - Seylani, Allen
AU - Shabany, Maryam
AU - Shafie, Mahan
AU - Shahab, Muhammad
AU - Shahbandi, Ataollah
AU - Shahid, Samiah
AU - Shahid, Syed Ahsan Ahsan
AU - Shahsavari, Hamid R.
AU - Shahwan, Moyad Jamal
AU - Shaikh, Masood Ali
AU - Shamim, Muhammad Aaqib
AU - Shams, Elahe
AU - Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran
AU - Shamsi, Anas
AU - Shamsutdinova, Alfiya
AU - Shan, Dan
AU - Shanawaz, Mohd
AU - Shankar, Abhishek
AU - Shannawaz, Mohammed
AU - Sharew, Nigussie Tadesse
AU - Sharifan, Amin
AU - Sharma, Manoj
AU - Sharma, Rajesh
AU - Sharma, Ujjawal
AU - Sharma, Vishal
AU - Shastry, Shamee
AU - Shawahna, Ramzi
AU - Shayan, Maryam
AU - Sheida, Fateme
AU - Sherchan, Samendra P.
AU - Shetty, Pavanchand H.
AU - Shetty, Premalatha K.
AU - Shetty, Ranjitha S.
AU - Shetty, Suraj S.
AU - Shibani, Mosa
AU - Shittu, Aminu
AU - Shivarov, Velizar
AU - Shokati Eshkiki, Zahra
AU - Shongwe, Sinegugu Nosipho
AU - Shool, Sina
AU - Shorofi, Seyed Afshin
AU - Shrestha, Sunil
AU - Shuval, Kerem
AU - Si, Yafei
AU - Sibuyi, Nicole R.S.
AU - Siddig, Emmanuel Edwar
AU - Siddiqi, Ahmed Kamal
AU - Silva, Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues
AU - Singh, Amit
AU - Singh, Baljinder
AU - Singh, Harmanjit
AU - Singh, Jasvinder A.
AU - Singh, Kalpana
AU - Singh, Mayank
AU - Singh, Paramdeep
AU - Singh, Prashant Kumar
AU - Singh, Puneetpal
AU - Singh, Satwinder
AU - Singh, Surjit
AU - Sinha, Mukesh Kumar
AU - Sitas, Freddy
AU - Siyoum, Dagne Feleke
AU - Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna
AU - Smith, Amanda E.
AU - Sobia, Farrukh
AU - Solikhah, Solikhah
AU - Soliman, Sameh S.M.
AU - Sood, Aayushi
AU - Spearman, Sandra
AU - Srichawla, Bahadar S.
AU - Srinivasamurthy, Suresh Kumar
AU - Srivastava, Devin Bailey
AU - Straif, Kurt
AU - Subramaniyan, Vetriselvan
AU - Suleiman, Auwal Garba
AU - Suleiman Odidi, Muritala Odidi
AU - Suleman, Muhammad
AU - Sulistiyorini, Desy
AU - Sultan Meo, Anusha
AU - Sun, Zhong
AU - Suresh, Vinay
AU - Susianti, Hani
AU - Swain, Chandan Kumar
AU - Szarpak, Lukasz
AU - T Y, Sree Sudha
AU - Tabaee Damavandi, Payam
AU - Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael
AU - Tabatabaei, Fatemeh Sadat
AU - Tabatabaei, Seyyed Mohammad
AU - Tabibi, Ramin
AU - Tabish, Mohammad
AU - Taha, Seyed Reza
AU - Taheri Abkenar, Yasaman
AU - Taheri Soodejani, Moslem
AU - Taiba, Jabeen
AU - Talaat, Iman M.
AU - Tampa, Mircea
AU - Tamuzi, Jacques Lukenze
AU - Tan, Ker Kan
AU - Tanwar, Manoj
AU - Tariq, Saba
AU - Tavangar, Seyed Mohammad
AU - Taye, Birhan Tsegaw
AU - Tbakhi, Abdelghani
AU - Tekola, Abainash
AU - Temsah, Mohamad Hani
AU - Terefa, Dufera Rikitu
AU - Tesfamariam, Wegen Beyene
AU - Teye-Kwadjo, Enoch
AU - Thangavelu, Lakshmi
AU - Thapar, Rekha
AU - Thayakaran, Rasiah
AU - Thayumana Sundaram, Mahalakshmi
AU - Theyra-Enias, Hadiza
AU - Thomas, Nihal
AU - Thomas, Nikhil Kenny
AU - Ticoalu, Jansje Henny Vera
AU - Tiruye, Tenaw Yimer
AU - Tiwari, Krishna
AU - Topor-Madry, Roman
AU - Toriola, Adetunji T.
AU - Touvier, Mathilde
AU - Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto
AU - Traini, Eugenio
AU - Tran, Bach Xuan
AU - Tran, Ngoc Ha
AU - Tran, Quynh Thuy Huong
AU - Tran, Thang Huu
AU - Trico, Domenico
AU - Tsatsakis, Aristidis
AU - Tualeka, Abdul Rohim
AU - Tuffour Amirikah, Mike
AU - Tuglo, Lawrence Sena
AU - Ullah, Atta
AU - Ullah, Saeed
AU - Umakanthan, Srikanth
AU - Umar, Lawan
AU - Umar, Shehu Salihu
AU - Umar, Umar Muhammad
AU - Unim, Brigid
AU - Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran
AU - Upadhya, Dinesh
AU - Vaithinathan, Asokan Govindaraj
AU - Vakili, Omid
AU - Van den Eynde, Jef
AU - Varasteh, Javad
AU - Varthya, Shoban Babu
AU - Vaziri, Siavash
AU - Vellingiri, Balachandar
AU - Verma, Madhur
AU - Veroux, Massimiliano
AU - Verras, Georgios Ioannis
AU - Villa, Simone
AU - Villanueva, Gabriela Ines
AU - Violante, Francesco S.
AU - Vizzielli, Giuseppe
AU - Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch
AU - Vlassov, Vasily
AU - Vollset, Stein Emil
AU - Vounzoulaki, Elpida
AU - Waheed, Yasir
AU - Wang, Cong
AU - Wang, Ruixuan
AU - Wang, Xing
AU - Wang, Yanzhong
AU - Waqas, Muhammad
AU - Ward, Paul
AU - Wassie, Toyiba Hiyaru
AU - Weerakoon, Kosala Gayan
AU - Westerman, Ronny
AU - Wicaksana, Anggi Lukman
AU - Wickramasinghe, Dakshitha Praneeth
AU - Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana Darshana
AU - Wijarnpreecha, Karn
AU - Willeit, Peter
AU - Wojewodzic, Marcin W.
AU - Wolf, Axel Walter
AU - Wu, Felicia
AU - Wu, James Fan
AU - Wu, Zenghong
AU - Xia, Qing
AU - Xia, Zhijia
AU - Xiao, Lishun
AU - Xie, Wanqing
AU - Xu, Libo
AU - Xu, Suowen
AU - Xue, Mingyang
AU - Yadav, Mukesh Kumar
AU - Yahya, Galal
AU - Yarahmadi, Amir
AU - Yassin, Mohamed A.
AU - Yaya, Sanni
AU - Ye, Pengpeng
AU - Yesuf, Subah Abderehim
AU - Yezli, Saber
AU - Yin, Dehui
AU - Yirdaw, Biksegn Asrat
AU - Yon, Dong Keon
AU - Yonemoto, Naohiro
AU - Younis, Mustafa Z.
AU - Yousefi, Zabihollah
AU - Yu, Chuanhua
AU - Yuan, Chun Wei
AU - Zadnik, Vesna
AU - Zafar, Syed Nabeel
AU - Zaghampour, Manijeh
AU - Zakham, Fathiah
AU - Zaki, Nazar
AU - Zamagni, Giulia
AU - Zaman, Burhan Abdullah
AU - Zaman, Sojib Bin
AU - Zare Sakhvidi, Mohammad Javad
AU - Zastrozhin, Michael
AU - Zawiah, Mohammed
AU - Zeariya, Mohammed G.M.
AU - Zemariam, Alemu Birara
AU - Zensen, Sebastian
AU - Zhang, Jianrong
AU - Zhang, Jingya
AU - Zhang, Liqun
AU - Zhang, Xiaoyi
AU - Zhang, Zhi Jiang
AU - Zhao, Yang
AU - Zheng, David X.
AU - Zheng, Jinxin
AU - Zheng, Ming Hua
AU - Zhong, Anthony
AU - Zhong, Claire Chenwen
AU - Zhou, Jiayan
AU - Zhou, Juexiao
AU - Zhu, Bin
AU - Zhumagaliuly, Abzal
AU - Zielińska, Magdalena
AU - Zitoun, Osama A.
AU - Zrieq, Rafat Mohammad
AU - Zuber, Mohammed
AU - Zyoud, Sa'ed H.
AU - Zyoud, Shaher H.
AU - Vos, Theo
AU - Murray, Christopher J.L.
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2025 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2025/10/11
Y1 - 2025/10/11
N2 - Background: Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050. Methods: Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors. Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 aim to reduce non-communicable disease mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030 was estimated for cancer. Findings: In 2023, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 16·4 to 20·7) incident cases of cancer and 10·4 million (9·65 to 10·9) deaths, contributing to 271 million (255 to 285) DALYs globally. Of these, 57·9% (56·1 to 59·8) of incident cases and 65·8% (64·3 to 67·6) of cancer deaths occurred in low-income to upper-middle-income countries based on World Bank income group classifications. Cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally in 2023 after cardiovascular diseases. There were 4·33 million (3·85 to 4·78) risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% (37·8 to 45·4) of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% (57·1 to 86·8) from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% (62·2 to 86·2) over the same period. The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally, 60·7% (41·9 to 80·6) and 74·5% (50·1 to 104·2) increases from 2024, respectively. These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90·6% [61·0 to 127·0]) compared with high-income countries (42·8% [28·3 to 58·6]). Most of these increases are likely due to demographic changes, as age-standardised death rates are forecast to change by –5·6% (–12·8 to 4·6) between 2024 and 2050 globally. Between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying due to cancer between the ages of 30 years and 70 years was forecasted to have a relative decrease of 6·5% (3·2 to 10·3). Interpretation: Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden, with increasing numbers of cases and deaths forecasted up to 2050 and a disproportionate growth in burden in countries with scarce resources. The decline in age-standardised mortality rates from cancer is encouraging but insufficient to meet the SDG target set for 2030. Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Funding: Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, and St Baldrick's Foundation.
AB - Background: Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050. Methods: Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors. Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 aim to reduce non-communicable disease mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030 was estimated for cancer. Findings: In 2023, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 16·4 to 20·7) incident cases of cancer and 10·4 million (9·65 to 10·9) deaths, contributing to 271 million (255 to 285) DALYs globally. Of these, 57·9% (56·1 to 59·8) of incident cases and 65·8% (64·3 to 67·6) of cancer deaths occurred in low-income to upper-middle-income countries based on World Bank income group classifications. Cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally in 2023 after cardiovascular diseases. There were 4·33 million (3·85 to 4·78) risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% (37·8 to 45·4) of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% (57·1 to 86·8) from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% (62·2 to 86·2) over the same period. The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally, 60·7% (41·9 to 80·6) and 74·5% (50·1 to 104·2) increases from 2024, respectively. These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90·6% [61·0 to 127·0]) compared with high-income countries (42·8% [28·3 to 58·6]). Most of these increases are likely due to demographic changes, as age-standardised death rates are forecast to change by –5·6% (–12·8 to 4·6) between 2024 and 2050 globally. Between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying due to cancer between the ages of 30 years and 70 years was forecasted to have a relative decrease of 6·5% (3·2 to 10·3). Interpretation: Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden, with increasing numbers of cases and deaths forecasted up to 2050 and a disproportionate growth in burden in countries with scarce resources. The decline in age-standardised mortality rates from cancer is encouraging but insufficient to meet the SDG target set for 2030. Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Funding: Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, and St Baldrick's Foundation.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105018210233
U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01635-6
DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01635-6
M3 - Article
C2 - 41015051
AN - SCOPUS:105018210233
SN - 0140-6736
VL - 406
SP - 1565
EP - 1586
JO - The Lancet
JF - The Lancet
IS - 10512
ER -