Thermal power plant operating regimes in future British power systems with increasing variable renewable penetration

This work investigates the operational requirements of thermal power plants in a number of potential future British power systems with increasing variable renewable penetration. The PLEXOS Integrated Energy Model has been used to develop the market models, with PLEXOS employing mixed integer programming to solve the unit commitment and economic dispatch problem, subject to a number of constraints. Initially, a model of the British power system was developed and validated. Subsequently, a 2020 test model was developed to analyse a number of future system structures with differing fuel and carbon prices and generation mixes. The study has found that in three of the four scenarios considered, the utilisation of gas power plants will be relatively low, but remains fundamental to the security of supply. Also, gas plants will be subject to more intense ramping. The findings have consequent implications for energy policy as expensive government interventions may be required to prevent early decommissioning of gas capacity, should the prevailing market conditions not guarantee revenue adequacy.