Wind energy resources in South America under climate change

This work evaluates future variations in wind resources in South America by considering the newest and most complex climate-change scenarios – the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). A multi-model ensemble of global climate models is constructed to compare wind power density values at the end of the century (2081-2100) with a baseline period (1995-2014). Three climate-change scenarios are considered, representative of high (SSP5-8.5), intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and low (SSP1-1.9) emissions pathways. The findings reveal remarkable increases in wind resources (over 100%) in regions of Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela. Conversely, notable reductions (up to 50%) are predicted along the western coast of the South American continent, particularly in South Chile, Peru and Ecuador. These substantial changes must be taken into account in strategising the growth of the wind industry and its pivotal role in achieving the decarbonisation of the energy sector in South America.